Daily Fantasy Football Basic Strategy: Part 6
The look at wide receivers rolls on in this edition of Building Blocks. In part 2, we’ll be focusing on what we’re looking for in a wide receiver in GPPs and the considerations we need to make with weather.
The theme for cash games is consistency, but when it comes to GPPs, we flip the script a little bit. Now we want wide receivers with big boom or bust potential and high ceilings. We’re fine with a player having a very wide range of potential results, as long as their ceiling is high. In GPPs, we can happily embrace the high variance nature of wide receivers because when the variance goes our way, we’re scoring a huge pay day.
When it comes to GPPs, safety and floor go out the window and instead, our wide receivers must have multi-touchdown potential. When looking at the potential of a wide receiver, we must always ask ourselves whether or not there is potential for a multi-touchdown game. Because of this, slot receivers aren’t often looked at for GPP lineups (although there are, of course, exceptions to this rule).
As stated in our Wide Receivers in Cash Games article, Vegas lines are a good place to start for predicting the number of touchdowns a team will have. A low scoring game clearly isn’t good for multi-touchdown potential. Also applicable is targets per game; the higher the better.
For touchdowns, it’s also good to check out a wide receiver’s average yards per catch. If their average yards per catch isn’t over 10, they’re going to be catching shorter passes more often which limits their touchdown potential. A good place to check out something like this and many other relevant receiver stats is on ESPN’s receiving stats page.
Boom or Bust
When we talk about boom or bust, we’re talking about high variance output. A boom or bust wide receiver will sometimes have 12 catches in a game for over a hundred yards and multiple touchdowns. Other times they’ll go 1 catch for seven yards. These are the players we want for GPPs.
The top heavy nature of GPPs means that we need to come 1st to win the big bucks, and to come in 1st place in big fields, we need huge scores. There is often no point in taking consistent players with middle-of-the-road potential because average scores are not going to win GPPs. High floors are great and are always optimal, but the most important factor in top-heavy events is a high ceiling. So don’t be afraid of boom or bust players. In fact, embrace them.
Pay Up for Studs
We’re going to spend money on our wide receivers, and there’s a couple reasons why. The first reason is that a high salary sometimes means low ownership percentage due to prohibitive cost. As discussed in our Running Backs in GPPs article, it is extremely important to roster low owned players for the chance to gain an advantage over the rest of the field when our players do well. And as discussed in the Running Backs article, we will be using social media and other strategy sites to get an idea of the players everyone else will be putting into their lineups.
We’re not rostering such players just because of ownership percentage, of course. The main reason we want them in our lineups is that wide receiver studs are the highest upside players in NFL DFS. In 2014, wide receivers such as Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant won players a lot of money in GPPs because of their unparalleled ability to rack up tons of points. They did come at a price, however, often costing upwards of 18-20% of the total available salary cap. These high costs are what cause some players to shy away, making them even more valuable to those that end up taking them. In the right circumstances, they offer a rare combination of making lineups unique while also providing huge upside, which improves chances of winning GPPs.
During our look at lineup construction, we’ll discuss some strategy involved with picking wide receivers fitting the stud category as well as some lower priced pass catchers.
Weather that provides problems for quarterbacks also provides problems for wide receivers, which isn’t surprising due to the obvious link between the two positions. We should exercise caution when it comes to playing receivers in highly windy or rainy games, as well as very cold games.
Weather is, however, less of a concern in GPPs than in cash games. Bad weather could potentially cause some players to fade certain wide receivers, lowering their ownerships and potentially creating an advantage for those brave enough to take them.
That brings us to the end of our look at wide receivers in NFL DFS. If you have any questions about this article, please post in the Building Blocks: Wide Receivers in GPPs discussion topic. If you have any suggestions or comments regarding the Building Blocks series in general, please post in the daily fantasy football forum.
In This Series: NFL Building Blocks