NBA Beyond Basics
Daily fantasy basketball strategy
DFS at the end of the season is generally a bit more difficult, as the regs simply won’t go away and the pool of extremely casual players is generally reduced. This creates an interesting dynamic in GPP, as we are not dealing with a static environment like in cash games. It becomes difficult to simply find the best value plays of the day and mash them in with abandon, since a larger % of the field will be aware of these plays, thus driving up the overall ownership of the obvious plays.
In last week’s article we covered the important of variance on choosing your players to maximize upside, an integral factor in creating a roster that maximizes ceiling potential. Beyond that, it is essential to understand the GPP marketplace and how GPP projections should differ from the ones you use for cash.
With NBA winding down, I felt it would be prudent to discuss some mathematical concepts that can be applied to NBA, but are also essential to the upcoming MLB season.
If you’re a cash player trying to move up in stakes, you’ll invariably notice that the competition gets tougher to beat the bigger you play, as logic would dictate. The simple reason is that you’ll face more regs, and good regs will pick the best value plays in cash far more often than recreational players.
DraftKings has made some recent changes, the most notable one being a limit of 20 entries on a number of contests which formerly had a cap of 50-150 entries. This has a negative effect on players who mass multi enter, but overall creates softer fields and also changes game theory a bit for the larger field contests.
The NBA season has now entered its second distinct period, culminating with the trade deadline and All-Star break festivities. We are at the point where certain lottery teams will soon start to phase out their veterans and start to give their young players more of a look, and teams with plenty to play for will start to tighten their rotations and give their best players larger minutes. Be wary of playing older vets on bad teams, especially in road games and/or back to backs. I don’t intend to delve too much into the roster shakeups created by recent trades, but instead will discuss how to build lineups that will maximize correlation both from player to player synergy as well as leveraging overtime. Overtimes have hit in 5.9% of games this season, so make sure to factor that in, especially in games with tight point spreads. It is also important if using correlation derived from stacking and overtime to concentrate your lineup around players who start, or are at least “super subs” who have a decent chance of playing OT. The biggest correlations in NBA come from assists to 3pt FG made, a synergy that will yield 5 DraftKings points per successful
If you’ve read through my most recent series of articles, you may have picked up how important it is to roster players on shorthanded teams due to injuries. Even what some might consider a minor tweak to a roster can create a butterfly effect, resulting in massive opportunities for players that may go unnoticed by both projection sites and the public.
One of the more difficult things to accomplish in GPPs is finding cheap value that won’t be owned by most of the public and pro players. On slates where there is a plethora of expensive and punt value, expect to see a lot of “stars and scrubs” lineups in both cash and GPP.